📈 Ukuaji wa Kanisa — Sehemu ya 1: Utangulizi📈 Church Growth — Unit 1: Introduction

Mwongozo wa KoziCourse Orientation

Karibu katika Ukuaji wa Kanisa — somo la sehemu kumi na mbili, lililofundishwa kwanza kizazi kimoja kilichopita na sasa limehuishwa kwa ajili ya siku zetu. Kila sehemu inahifadhi mafundisho ya asili kisha inaongeza kifungu, "Tulipo Sasa," kinachoingiza yale ambayo miaka thelathini iliyopita imelifundisha kanisa kuhusu kukua na kupungua kwake lenyewe. Kila sehemu inamalizika kwa mtihani wa maswali thelathini na inahitaji asilimia 90 ili kufaulu. Sehemu ya maswali ya kuchagua jibu ikishindwa, hufungwa kwa dakika mbili; kwa wanafunzi wa ngazi ya uzamili, sehemu ya majibu mafupi ikishindwa, hufungwa kwa dakika kumi na tano. Kozi hii inatoa cheti cha kukamilisha baada ya kumaliza sehemu zote kumi na mbili.Welcome to Church Growth — a twelve-unit study, first taught a generation ago and now refreshed for our own day. Each unit preserves the original teaching and then adds a section, "Where We Are Now," that folds in what the last thirty years have taught the church about its own growth and decline. Each unit ends with a thirty-question exam and requires 90% to pass. A failed multiple-choice section locks for two minutes; for master's-level students, a failed short-answer section locks for fifteen minutes. The course awards a certificate of completion upon finishing all twelve units.

Tafakari kabla ya kuanza: tafuta andiko moja la Maandiko linaloeleza kwa nini kanisa linapaswa kukua, na kwenye karatasi chora picha ya kanisa.Reflect before you begin: find a Scripture on why church growth ought to take place, and on a sheet of paper draw a picture of a church.

I. Miaka ya 1950 na Mfumo wa Matawi Yanayofanana (Franchise)I. The 1950s and the Franchise Model

Katika miaka ya 1950 Wabaptisti wa Kusini (Southern Baptists) walionekana kuwa wanaujua mpigo wa moyo wa Amerika Kaskazini. Mwaka 1950 dhehebu hilo liliandika ongezeko la asilimia 4.7 kwa mwaka mmoja. Ilionekana kuwa ndio wakati wetu. Tulikuwa watu wa vijijini, wa Kusini, wa "ukanda wa Biblia" (Bible belt); kiwango chetu cha kuzaliwa kilikuwa juu; na tulionekana kufanya kila kitu sawasawa. Tulitumia mahubiri ya kuwaita watu kufanya uamuzi, uinjilisti wa mtu kwa mtu, Shule ya Jumapili, na mikutano ya uamsho ili kupata ukuaji mkubwa sana.During the 1950s Southern Baptists seemed to have the pulse of North America. In 1950 the denomination recorded a 4.7% increase for the year. That seemed to be our time. We were a rural, Southern, Bible-belt people; we had a high birth rate; and we seemed to be doing everything right. We used decisional preaching, personal evangelism, Sunday School, and revivals to record tremendous growth.

Mfumo tuliotumia ulikuwa mfumo wa kiviwanda, au wa matawi yanayofanana (franchise). Unajua franchise ni nini. Unaingia McDonald's, pengine mtandao mkubwa zaidi wa matawi ulimwenguni, na katika mji wowote unapata kitu kilekile kwa kiasi kikubwa; matawi ya mahali hapo hayaruhusiwi kujaribu mambo mapya sana. Kila hamburger ni ya kiwango kimoja ulimwenguni kote. Vivyo hivyo, kanisa la Wabaptisti wa Kusini mahali pamoja lilionekana karibu sawa kabisa na jingine popote pale. Nguvu ya mfumo huo ilikuwa uthabiti wa kufanana. Udhaifu wake ulikuwa kwamba mfumo uliofanywa sare hauwezi kujirekebisha ulimwengu unapobadilika — na ulimwengu haujasimama tuli.The model we used was the industrial, or franchise, model. You know what a franchise is. You go to a McDonald's, perhaps the world's largest franchise, and in any city you get pretty much the same thing; the local branches are not allowed to experiment very much. Every hamburger is standard the world over. Likewise, a Southern Baptist church in one place looked pretty much like one anywhere else. The strength of that model was consistency. Its weakness was that a uniform model cannot adapt when the world changes — and the world has not stood still.

II. Kusimama kwa Ukuaji na KupunguaII. Plateau and Decline

Kwa ufafanuzi, kanisa linalokua linaonyesha ongezeko la zaidi ya asilimia 10 la washirika katika kipindi cha miaka mitano; kanisa linalopungua linaonyesha upungufu wa zaidi ya asilimia 10 katika miaka mitano; na kanisa lililosimama (plateaued) halionyeshi lolote kati ya hayo. Kwa takwimu za mwaka 1990, asilimia 35 ya makanisa yote yalikuwa yamesimama au yanapungua. Miongoni mwa Wabaptisti wa Kusini, asilimia 52 yalikuwa yamesimama, asilimia 18 yanapungua, na asilimia 30 yanakua. Kama makanisa yake mengi, dhehebu lenyewe lilikuwa limesimama; bila ukuaji wake miongoni mwa makabila na jamii mbalimbali lingekuwa linapungua kama madhehebu mengine makubwa ya Amerika Kaskazini. Dhehebu lililosimama ni kioo tu cha makanisa yaliyosimama. Swali lililokuwa mezani, na bado lipo, ni hili: je, tujitahidi zaidi, au tujaribu kufanya mambo kwa njia tofauti?By definition, a growing church shows more than a 10% increase in membership over a five-year period; a declining church shows more than a 10% decrease over five years; and a plateaued church shows neither. By the 1990 figures, 35% of all churches were plateaued or declining. Among Southern Baptists, 52% were plateaued, 18% declining, and 30% growing. Like most of its churches, the denomination had plateaued; without its ethnic growth it would have been in decline like the other major denominations of North America. A plateaued denomination is simply a reflection of plateaued churches. The question on the table was, and still is: do we try harder, or try doing things differently?

III. Tulipo Sasa (2026): Uhamaji Mkuu Kutoka Kanisani (Great Dechurching)III. Where We Are Now (2026): The Great Dechurching

Robo karne ndani ya karne ya ishirini na moja, hukumu imekwisha kutolewa. Kusimama kwa ukuaji kulizama zaidi hadi kuwa jambo lenye jina: Uhamaji Mkuu Kutoka Kanisani (the Great Dechurching). Takriban watu wazima milioni arobaini wa Amerika — karibu mmoja kati ya sita — walihudhuria kanisa zamani na sasa hawahudhurii, na sehemu kubwa ya kuondoka huko ilitokea katika miaka ishirini na mitano iliyopita, ikiongezeka kasi katika miaka ileile ambayo kozi hii ilifundishwa kwa mara ya kwanza. Hao ni watu wengi kuliko wale waliokusanywa katika Maamsho Makuu ya Kwanza na ya Pili na mikutano yote ya injili ya Billy Graham kwa pamoja. Kwa mara ya kwanza katika miaka themanini tangu jambo hili lianze kupimwa, watu wazima wa Amerika wanaobaki nyumbani Jumapili ni wengi kuliko wanaokwenda kanisani.A quarter-century into the twenty-first century, the verdict is in. The plateau deepened into something with a name: the Great Dechurching. About forty million American adults — roughly one in six — once attended church and no longer do, and most of that leaving came in the last twenty-five years, accelerating in the very years this course was first taught. That is more people than were gathered in by the First and Second Great Awakenings and all the Billy Graham crusades combined. For the first time in the eighty years it has been measured, more American adults stay home on Sunday than go.

Lakini sikia habari njema. Wengi wa wale milioni arobaini hawakuondoka kwa sababu ya mgogoro wa imani. Waliondoka kwa sababu za kawaida — walihama, safari ya kufika kanisani ikawa ndefu, kipindi fulani cha maisha kikabadilika — na hakuna aliyewafuata. Karibu nusu ya wale walioondoka wanasema wangefikiria kurudi. Na takwimu mpya kabisa zinaonyesha ongezeko la kwanza la mahudhurio ya ana kwa ana katika miongo kadhaa. Mlango wa nyuma, ambao tutautembelea mwishoni mwa kozi hii, umeonekana kuwa unafunguka pande zote mbili.But hear the good news. Most of the forty million did not leave in a crisis of faith. They left for ordinary reasons — they moved, the drive got long, a season of life changed — and no one came after them. About half of those who left say they would consider coming back. And the newest figures show the first uptick in in-person attendance in decades. The back door, which we will visit at the end of this course, turns out to swing both ways.

IV. Picha ya Ulimwengu Mzima, na Msimamo wa MoyoIV. A Global Picture, and a Posture

Ni lazima pia tuinue macho yetu kutoka Amerika Kaskazini. Wakati kanisa la Magharibi limepungua, kanisa ulimwenguni limeongezeka sana. Wakristo wawili kati ya kila watatu sasa wanaishi Kusini mwa dunia — Afrika, Amerika ya Kusini, na Asia — na injini ya ukuaji huo si ya Kibaptisti wala si ya Kimagharibi, bali ni ya Kipentekoste na ya Kikarismatiki. Kutoka chini ya waumini milioni moja mwaka 1900, vuguvugu hilo la upyaisho sasa linahesabiwa kwa mamia ya mamilioni na huenda likapita bilioni moja kabla ya mwaka 2050. Kitovu cha uzito wa imani kimehamia kusini, na kuvuka mipaka yetu ya zamani ya kimadhehebu. Kozi hii ilifundishwa kwanza katika seminari ya Wabaptisti wa Kusini; takwimu zake za mwaka 1990 zinahifadhiwa kama picha ya kihistoria ambayo sasa zimekuwa. Lakini sasa inalihudumia kanisa zima, na mafundisho yake yamekusudiwa kuvuka madhehebu.We must also lift our eyes from North America. While the church in the West has thinned, the church in the world has multiplied. Two of every three Christians now live in the Global South — in Africa, Latin America, and Asia — and the engine of that growth is not Baptist and not Western, but Pentecostal and charismatic. From fewer than a million believers in 1900, that renewal movement is now counted in the hundreds of millions and may pass a billion before 2050. The center of gravity of the faith has moved south, and across our old denominational lines. This course was first taught in a Southern Baptist seminary; its 1990 figures are kept as the historical snapshot they now are. But it now serves the whole church, and its lessons are meant to reach across denominations.

V. Pentekoste na Mtindo wa UamshoV. Pentecost and the Pattern of Awakening

Hatuthubutu kulizungumzia vuguvugu hilo lililobebwa na Roho kama mbinu nyingine moja tu. Nyuma yake hasimami ufundi bali Mtu. Ukuaji wa kanisa daima umerudi nyuma hadi Pentekoste. Ishara tatu ziliiweka alama siku ile: uvumi kama wa upepo wa nguvu ukienda kasi, ndimi kama za moto zikikaa juu ya kila mmoja wao, na kunena kwa lugha nyingine. Lakini angalia ni kunena kwa namna gani — ulikuwa muujiza wa kusikia. Watu kutoka kila taifa walisikia matendo makuu ya Mungu kwa lugha zao wenyewe, bila mkalimani. Ulikuwa Babeli ikirudishwa nyuma: kwenye mnara Mungu aliwatawanya watu wenye kiburi kwa kuichafua lugha yao; Pentekoste Aliwakusanya watu wa kila lugha na kuwafanya waelewe.We dare not speak of that Spirit-borne movement as one more method. Behind it stands not a technique but a Person. The growth of the church has always traced back to Pentecost. Three signs marked that day: a sound like a rushing wind, tongues as of fire resting on each of them, and speech in other tongues. But mark what kind of speech — it was a miracle of hearing. People from every nation heard the wonders of God in their own language, with no interpreter. It was Babel run backward: at the tower God scattered a proud people by confusing their speech; at Pentecost He gathered a people of every language and made them understand.

Maamsho Makuu mara nyingi yamekuwa marudio ya sehemu ya Pentekoste, na Roho yule yule anaweza kushuka juu ya kanisa lolote litakalomtafuta. Ishara za nje zimetofautiana — wengine walilia, wengine walianguka, wengine walinena kwa lugha na wengi hawakunena — lakini kilichodumu hakikuwa kamwe tukio la ajabu; kilikuwa Uwepo. Mwanahistoria wa uamsho J. Edwin Orr alifuatilia vuguvugu hizi na kugundua kwamba zote zilipita njia moja: kwanza maombi ya pamoja, ya umoja; kisha kumwagwa kwa Roho Mtakatifu; na kisha — hapo tu — watu walitubu na kuamini.The Great Awakenings have often been partial recreations of Pentecost, and that same Spirit can fall on any church that will seek Him. The outward signs have varied — some wept, some fell, some spoke in tongues and many did not — but the constant was never a phenomenon; it was a Presence. The revival historian J. Edwin Orr traced these movements and found they all ran one road: first concerted, united prayer; then an outpouring of the Holy Spirit; and then — only then — people repented and believed.

VI. Korea, 1907VI. Korea, 1907

Karibu na mwanzo wa karne ya ishirini kulikuwa na waumini mia chache tu katika Korea yote. Habari zilipowafikia wamisionari juu ya kile Mungu alichokuwa akifanya huko Wales, walitamani uamsho kisha wakajishawishi kuuacha: itakuwa vigumu mno. Lakini waliposikia kwamba uamsho ulikuwa umezuka India, walifanya jambo lile moja ambalo mtindo huu unadai — waliongeza maombi yao maradufu, na kuzigeuza wiki kali kabisa za majira ya baridi kuwa shule ya Biblia.Around the turn of the twentieth century there were only a few hundred believers in all of Korea. When word reached the missionaries of what God was doing in Wales, they wished for revival and then talked themselves out of it: it would be too hard. But hearing that revival had broken out in India, they did the one thing the pattern requires — they redoubled their prayers, and turned the bitterest weeks of winter into a Bible school.

Jioni moja mtu aliyekuwa akiongoza watu wapatao elfu moja na mia tano alipendekeza muda mfupi wa maombi kwanza, na akawaomba wasichukue muda mrefu. Mtu mmoja aliomba, na sita wakasimama. Wa pili aliomba, na kumi na wawili wakasimama. Mwishowe kiongozi aliacha kujaribu kuyadhibiti: "Inaonekana mnataka kuomba. Haya — endeleeni kuomba." Na mbingu zikafunguka. Wote elfu moja na mia tano walisimama mara moja na kuomba kwa sauti pamoja, kila mmoja akiwa amezama ndani ya Mungu kiasi kwamba hakumtambua hata mtu aliyekuwa kando yake. Mwingereza mmoja aliyekuwepo aliliandikia gazeti la Times la London juu ya uvumi kama wa upepo wa nguvu ukienda kasi na nguvu ambayo wamisionari waliokuwa wameogopa hawakuweza kuidhibiti. Ilipopita, karibu Wakorea elfu themanini walikuwa wamemjia Kristo katika mwaka huo mmoja — na Korea imekuwa nchi ya uamsho tangu wakati huo. Kikundi kile kidogo cha waombaji katika majira ya baridi ya Korea ni mojawapo ya mizizi mikuu ya ukuaji ule ule tunaoutazama sasa ukichipuka Kusini mwa dunia.One evening a man leading some fifteen hundred suggested a short time of prayer first, and asked them not to take too long. One man prayed, and six rose to their feet. A second prayed, and a dozen stood. At last the leader gave up trying to manage it: "Apparently you want to pray. Well — go ahead and pray." And heaven opened. All fifteen hundred rose at once and prayed aloud together, each so lost in God he never noticed the man beside him. An Englishman present wrote to the London Times of a sound like a rushing wind and a power that the frightened missionaries could not control. When it had passed, nearly eighty thousand Koreans had come to Christ in that single year — and Korea has been a land of revival ever since. That little praying band in the Korean winter is one taproot of the very growth we now watch rising out of the Global South.

VII. Jibu la TatuVII. The Third Answer

Kwa hiyo swali la zamani — tujitahidi zaidi, au tujaribu kwa njia tofauti? — ni swali sahihi, lakini halijawahi kuwa swali zima. Orr angesisitiza jibu la tatu ambalo hakuna jedwali la hesabu linaloweza kutoa: piga magoti umwombe Bwana wa mavuno amwage Roho wake tena. Mbinu zitaendelea kubadilika, kama kozi hii yote itakavyoonyesha. Roho habadiliki — wala njia ambayo amekuwa akija daima haibadiliki: maombi, kisha kumwagwa kwa Roho, kisha toba na imani.So the old question — try harder, or try differently? — is the right one, but it has never been the whole question. Orr would press a third answer no spreadsheet can give: fall to your knees and ask the Lord of the harvest to pour out His Spirit again. The methods will keep changing, as this whole course will show. The Spirit does not change — and neither does the way He has always come: prayer, then the outpouring, then repentance and faith.

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